From Oslo, with warmth
R.K. Pachauri
Posted online: Saturday, October 13, 2007 at 0000 hrs Print Email
As Al Gore said to me, ‘we have to work in tandem on climate change’. I’m
optimistic about the world’s futureA nobel is such an extraordinary prize
that it is almost a challenge. The challenge is to remember the work that is
being cited and the quiet and many claimants to the honour. This Nobel Peace
Prize is an expression of appreciation for the entire scientific community
that contributed to the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). This also goes to the governments that supported the
scientists and facilitated their work.
I merely speak as a spokesperson for the scientific and intellectual effort
that has been put into this work. The honour that has come from the Nobel
committee in Oslo today has enhanced our commitment to the cause.
The IPCC report has a policy implication to it. Its structure ensures that
governments become stakeholders in the output and hence carry enormous
strength in its implementation. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC –
‘Climate Change 2007’ – is a major advance over what we had earlier known
about climate change. It marks a substantial increase in knowledge of the
science related to climate change. The strength of the Fourth Assessment
Report is apart from the physical scientific basis of climate change; it has
much more information assessment of impacts across the globe.
Clearly, scientific research and knowledge have progressed substantially in
this area to make it possible for the authors of IPCC reports to provide a
more comprehensive scientific support for the findings of the previous
reports. This makes it possible for policy makers to pinpoint what needs to
be done.
For example, we know almost beyond doubt that we, the human race, have
substantially altered the earth’s atmosphere. In 2005 the concentration of
carbon dioxide exceeded the natural range that has existed over 650,000
years. Eleven of the warmest years since instrumental records have been kept
occurred during the last 12 years.
In the 20th century the increase in average temperature was 0.74 degrees
centigrade; sea level increased by 17 cm; and a large part of the northern
hemisphere snow cover vanished. Particularly worrisome is the reduction in
the mass balance of the glaciers, and this has serious implications for the
availability of water: 500 million people in South Asia and 250 million
people in China are likely to be affected as a result.
These assessments have implications on policy. Due to global warming, there
would be less water available in several parts of the world and a number of
crops that the human race is dependent on are likely to see declines in
yield and productivity.
The other area in which new clarity has emerged is the mitigation policy.
There is now evidence that the cost of mitigation is very low across the
world – in some sense it demolishes the misgivings people have voiced in the
past. The critics have said that there was a lot of negative cost to
mitigation – loss of jobs, fall in economic output. In fact, it is now
showing there is actually increase in economic output.
According to estimates, the cost of stabilisation would not be very high. At
the lower end of stabilisation options the cost in 2030 would not exceed 3
per cent of gross domestic product, which amounts to 0.12 per cent of gross
domestic product on an annual basis. With new technologies, new methods and
changes in behaviour, the costs would actually go down. In all, there is a
fairly robust assessment of climate change available now.
Next month, we will come out with a synthesis report on climate change that
will embody the key findings of our three reports released earlier this
year. The synthesis document would provide the most policy-relevant
scientific overview of the current understanding of climate change. It will
have an influence on the Conference of Parties (COP) in Bali. In fact, we
requested that the Bali meeting be shifted by four weeks, so that the
delegates may have the benefit of the synthesis report. Once this is out, we
would have completed our work of the Fourth Assessment Report.
It is now important that messages contained in the series of reports are
effectively disseminated among governments and people. That is a challenge
that I am willing to address after this part of my work gets over. I would
like to launch a major outreach programme, so that the work of the IPCC
reaches a large cross-section of people.
As Al Gore said to me today, “we have to work in tandem on climate change”.
He has got capabilities and skills to carry the message. We hope to utlilise
this synergy in the months to come. Overall, I am optimistic about the
future of the world – that is what keeps me going.
The events in the last few months have given me cause for optimism. There is
evidence of leaders and the public getting sensitised to climate change. And
this is what will lead to action that will address the problem that faces
humanity today. I hope that the global community at large finds the work of
the IPCC a valuable source of information and knowledge in an area that
critically affects the future of this planet and all forms of life that
exist on it.
The writer is chairperson of the IPCC, which shared this year’s Nobel Peace
Prize with Al Gore
Publication : IE; Section : Editorial ; Pg : 10; Date : 13/10/07
URL : http://www.indianexpress.com/story/227866.html