A solution for the planet
The world must use every opportunity to rise to the challenge of climate change………….Tony Blair
There has been an enormous shift in opinion in recent years over climate change. Scientists and political leaders are now united over the threat and the need for action. But there is danger of a yawning chasm on the size and speed of the cuts to greenhouse gas emissions.
Scientists say cuts of between 25 to 40 per cent in industrialised countries by 2020 are essential to hold temperatures down and lessen the risk of catastrophic, irreversible climate change. But with global carbon emissions growing at over 1 per cent a year, political leaders question how they can deliver such drastic reductions without damaging prosperity.
Sir Nicholas Stern, the author of the 2006 review on the economics of climate change, may have demonstrated that the cost of delay in tackling climate change would be many times higher than taking action now. But politicians who think only of the long term and ignore immediate public concerns may find themselves in office only for the short term and replaced by those without their vision.
So the challenge is to agree on national and international action to deliver low-carbon economies, but in a way that allows people including in the poorer parts of the world to enjoy the material and social benefits of growth and consumption. This needs a framework sufficiently radical about where we have to go but realistic about the speed of travel.
Its a task, given the complexity of the issues involved, more difficult than any the international community has faced for over half a century. But it is vital, given the potential price of failure, that agreement is reached at the UN conference in Copenhagen next year.
I dont, for a moment, underestimate the immense political and economic difficulties. The consensus is that greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by over 50 per cent by 2050 to have a good chance of keeping temperature rises to around 2 degrees Centigrade. It may appear daunting, but there are also reasons for hope. It is estimated that we have the technology to deliver 70 per cent of the changes we need.
Greater energy efficiency alone will provide a quarter of overall gains, as well as reducing bills. Deforestation accounts for up to 20 per cent of the emissions problem. It is clear, as well, that if we put the right incentives in place, the market will respond, human creativity and ingenuity will get to work, and answers will be given tomorrow that cant be contemplated today.
We also have to accept reality. An expansion of renewable energy and, in some countries at least, of nuclear power is essential to close the rest of the gap.
But the vast bulk of new power stations built in the United States, India and China over the next couple of decades will be coal-fired, so developing carbon capture and storage technology is also absolutely crucial. And there is a huge gap between our need for nuclear energy and the capability to deliver it, since the nuclear industry has been so run down in recent years.
Nor can we afford a re-run of Kyoto. We need all countries to be involved. The developed world, which created 80 per cent of the man-made greenhouse gases in our atmosphere, has to take a lead in reducing them. But if the United States met the boldest targets for reductions and China continues on its present path, emissions will still rise above the level at which potentially catastrophic climate change becomes much more likely.
Without clear political direction, there is a real risk that the UN Copenhagen Summit in December 2009 will lead to an agreement of the lowest common denominator, with each country giving as little as they believe possible.
We shouldnt get hung up about an agreement that covers every eventuality. Over the years to come, our knowledge and the speed of technological innovation will change dramatically. The crucial task at Copenhagen is to agree on a clear direction for both the developed and developing world toward a low carbon economy.
This requires the leading industrialised countries attending the Group of 8 summit in Hokkaido next month to agree to the 2050 target and the core elements that might go into the global deal.
There are grounds for optimism. Countries like China and India now accept that climate change is everyones problem and not just that of those countries most responsible for it. In the United States and Japan, we have also seen a welcome shift of attitude. In Europe, there is now a genuine and deep consensus about the need to act.
The challenge is now no longer of political will. It is how to get a deal, both radical but realistic, that sets us clearly on a path to a low carbon future. It is within our grasp. We cant afford to waste the opportunity.
Tony Blair was British prime minister from 1997 to 2007. IHT