Glacial dangers
India needs to act fast to prevent an environmental catastrophe…..NN Sachitanand
India needs to act fast to prevent an environmental catastrophe…..NN Sachitanand
Governments in our country seem rather habituated to sleeping over a problem till as the Americans so elegantly put it, the shit hits the roof. One prime example is the sublime manner in which the Karnataka government put off work on a high-speed road link from Bangalores new international airport to the city till after the airport was built.
Or consider how Mumbais municipal authorities ignored the gradual build-up of blockage at the outlet of the Mithi river into the sea till an unprecedented monsoon downpour in 2005 wreaked havoc on the city.
Or consider how Mumbais municipal authorities ignored the gradual build-up of blockage at the outlet of the Mithi river into the sea till an unprecedented monsoon downpour in 2005 wreaked havoc on the city.
Such official insouciance with regard to the impact of global warming may, a generation from now, lead to a major tragedy in the Indo-Gangetic plain affecting the lives of at least 500 million people who live here.
Preliminary data is unambiguous. Sixty-seven percent of the Himalayan glaciers have begun retreating at a startling rate since the 1980s, and this is because of climate change.
Expert say the impact will be two-fold. Firstly, high rates of glacial melt will cause major flooding downstream leaving behind scooped-out hollows which will form lakes dammed by moraine (loose rock). These lakes, being inherently unstable, may either collapse under the pressure of stored water or due to landslides and earthquakes that are common in the Himalayan region.
If these lakes burst, it will not only cause catastrophic floods but damage hydel power stations in the plains. Bhutan suffered such damage in 1994 when the Punakha valley was inundated after the Langgye glacial lake burst. Reports suggest that Bhutan faces a similar threat from atleast 25 such unstable lakes.
Secondly, due to reduced glacial melt supply, the dry season flow in the rivers will affect irrigation, drinking water supplies and river navigation.
As 37 per cent of our irrigated land is in this zone, the food economy will be impacted. All this will happen gradually but with increasing acceleration. The cumulative effect may well be disastrous as large numbers of uprooted villagers migrate to the cities in search of jobs, threatening the already precarious socio-economic equilibrium of urban areas.
There are two ways to tackle this. One is to, ostrich-like, put our heads in the sand and let future generations handle the problem. The other is to be proactive steps right away.
If we take the latter approach, as in warfare, we must know the enemy. The Centre must set up a multi-institutional, multi-disciplinary task force comprising of climatologists, geographers, geologists, glaciologists, water flow experts and earthquake experts to obtain more data.
We must also gather information on the current condition of the glaciers, the speed at which they are retreating, precipitation patterns, volumes of ice lost, the size of moraine lakes, rock structures etc.
This will involve field trips to the glaciers, devising monitoring methods, designing new equipment , establishing networks to transfer data and finally, interpreting the data (e.g. how imminent is the collapse of a particular moraine dam and the effect of resultant floods downstream) etc.
One way to prevent the bursting of a loose rock dam is to provide an outlet for stored water by scooping and strategic blasting. This is what the Chinese army engineers did in earthquake-hit Sichuan.
We must also to rope in our Army Sappers, trained in such blasting techniques to devise appropriate strategies. Equally important is to have warning systems for people, disaster management systems and rescue services.
Over the long term, the government will have to initiate studies on managing the aftermath of the loss of water resources in the plains due to glacial retreat. This can be done by maximising the storage of excess water available during the monsoons by using little-implemented methods of water harvesting, restoring and enhancing capacities of natural and artificial water bodies, etc.
Inter-basin transfers of flood flows to low rainfall areas needs to be looked at carefully; the Ken-Betwa link in Madhya Pradesh must be taken up on priority. Laws for the control and ownership of transferred waters has to be framed.
Meanwhile, socio-economic studies have to be initiated on the impact of reduced dry season flow on livelihoods in in the plains so that alternatives in terms of agricultural practices and jobs can be worked out.
There is very little time Are you paying heed, Mr. Prime Minister ?
The writer is a commentator on public affairs
The writer is a commentator on public affairs